Above 0.7000: Aussie Dollar holds ahead of Fed, RBA and inflation tests

• 0.11% higher: AUD/USD edges up amid US Dollar strength and uneven trading.
• 82% odds of a December Fed rate rise precede Warsh's press conference.
• Faster Australian CPI inflation could strengthen expectations of further RBA tightening.

AUD/USD is up a modest 0.11%. The Australian Dollar remains in consolidation against the US Dollar for a fourth consecutive day, with trading turning choppy before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. A packed US data calendar generated little market response. Traders are now watching for Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

0.7024: AUD/USD holds in range ahead of key policy signals from both central banks

Despite broader US Dollar gains, AUD/USD stands at 0.7024 at the time of writing. A 0.36% advance has taken the US Dollar Index (DXY) to 102.16. The index tracks six currencies against the US dollar.

US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence beat forecasts, climbing to 91.7 in October from September’s 82.2. Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8%, following a 0.1% increase in September. By contrast, ADP Employment Change came in at 16.8K, down from the previous 17.5K reading.

A busy round of central bank decisions, headed by the Fed, is commanding market attention. Although the US central bank is expected to leave rates on hold, markets put the probability of a 25-basis-point December increase at close to 82%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's subsequent press conference would then determine whether the FOMC is considering another increase this year or deferring it to 2027.

Thursday also brings the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. An elevated reading could solidify the case for a December rate rise if US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data also indicate a resilient economy.

Australia’s calendar includes September CPI and a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. Forecasts put trimmed mean inflation at 0.3% MoM, a tenth above the previous month’s 0.2%. An annual CPI reading above August’s 3.6% would open the door to additional tightening.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: 0.7072 marks technical resistance

At 0.7028 on the daily chart, AUD/USD retains a slightly bearish short-term bias. It remains beneath the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which converge around 0.7072. Broken rising trend-line levels at 0.7105 and 0.7455 also sit above the price, underscoring overhead supply. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 52.6 suggests momentum is improving marginally rather than signalling outright weakness.

The SMA convergence around 0.7072 provides the first resistance, with the broken ascending trend line near 0.7105 next, followed by a stronger horizontal obstacle at 0.7198. Below the market, the rising trend line around 0.6920 offers immediate support, before the older broken descending trend line near 0.6353. The current 0.7028 region serves as a near-term pivot. Sellers retain the advantage unless AUD/USD decisively recaptures the 0.7070/0.7110 zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)