Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC regains $81,000 ahead of Fed policy decision and Big Tech earnings

• The $81,000 level is back in Bitcoin’s hands on Wednesday as its recovery continues ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech results.
• Tuesday’s $175.99 million inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs extends their run of inflows to a second consecutive day.
• Thin market participation and inactive investors are the main concerns identified by K33 Research, whose report warns of an imminent increase in volatility.

The $81,000 mark was regained by Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday, with the recovery continuing ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech results. A second consecutive day of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this week pointed to mildly bullish institutional demand. 

For the Crypto King, however, an increase in volatility could be drawing closer: a K33 Research report identifies subdued market participation and investor inactivity as central concerns.

Bitcoin institutional demand stays cautiously bullish before Fed rate announcement

Tuesday brought $175.99 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, compared with $110.34 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue data. The figures point to modest institutional buying interest, leaving demand cautiously bullish. Nevertheless, inflows are still smaller than last week’s, suggesting that investors remain wary ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement later on Wednesday.

An unchanged benchmark interest rate, within the existing target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, is widely anticipated from the Fed on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool puts the market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting at 90.6%, while a December rate increase carries a probability of 84.4%. At his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be closely watched by traders seeking guidance on the central bank’s assessment of the economy and the path of monetary policy. 

Should his tone prove hawkish, risk appetite could weaken and BTC could come under pressure; a more dovish message, by contrast, could help sustain BTC’s recovery.

Middle East tensions have provided another reason for caution among BTC traders. According to the Wall Street Journal, several Gulf Arab countries have been told by the US to prepare for a “short, intense military campaign” following the US midterm elections. 

Crude oil has found support from these developments, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining more than 1% on the day to trade at around $101 per barrel. A rise in oil prices could heighten inflation concerns, curb risk appetite and limit BTC’s gains.

Big Tech results draw market attention

With Microsoft and Alphabet scheduled to release Q3 results on Wednesday and Amazon following on Thursday, investors are also focusing on earnings from major technology companies. 

If the figures vindicate continued heavy spending on artificial intelligence (AI), concerns about hyperscaler valuations could subside, supporting risk appetite. Disappointing results, on the other hand, could intensify the current AI-led market sell-off and put pressure on risk-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin.

Quiet Bitcoin trading raises prospect of volatility

Subdued participation and investor inactivity were singled out as key concerns for BTC prices in Tuesday’s K33 Research report, which warned that a period of greater volatility could be nearing.

At 1.3%, the 30-day volatility of perpetual open interest (OI) represents the 26th lowest reading since June 2021. Meanwhile, 30-day price volatility sits in the 2nd percentile of this decade. Trading volumes have also fallen to lows not seen between March 2024 and June 2026, with traders continuing to stay on the sidelines. 

“Calm like this lets leverage build gradually until a price move forces positions to close and pushes prices further. Regimes this quiet rarely last for long, so a volatility expansion looks likely soon. This also fits well with the frantic pace of the upcoming event calendar, setting the stage for prices to once again start swinging,” the analyst added.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Modest bullish signals persist

At $81,113 on Wednesday, Bitcoin retains a constructive bullish bias while consolidating above a closely grouped set of exponential moving averages (EMAs). Spot remains comfortably above the 50-day EMA at $80,816, the 100-day EMA at $77,813 and the 200-day EMA at $76,395. This configuration suggests that the wider uptrend still has support despite the latest pullback. 

Rather than signalling a fresh, forceful advance at this stage, momentum readings point towards consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 46, while Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero.

Horizontal resistance around $85,000 presents the first significant upside obstacle. Selling pressure there has previously restrained gains, making it the key threshold bulls must overcome to regain upward momentum.

Initial buying interest on any decline is expected near the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Further support lies at the 100-day EMA at $77,813, followed by the 200-day EMA around $76,395. Were Bitcoin to close below this band of EMAs on a daily basis, the current bullish structure would be seriously weakened, leaving scope for a sharper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)