Cardano Price Forecast: Key support holds for ADA as bearish pressure builds

• With buyers defending support at $0.1894, Cardano trades just below $0.20 on Monday as the prevailing decline steadies.
• A jump in social dominance points to growing discussion, although on-chain figures indicate that whale activity remains subdued.
• At almost 2 billion ADA, futures Open Interest has retreated from last week’s 2.25 billion ADA, pointing to weaker retail demand.

Following a loss of roughly 8% last Thursday, Cardano (ADA) is consolidating above support at $0.1894 on Monday as the decline steadies. While discussion of Cardano has increased, on-chain figures indicate less activity among large-wallet investors, often known as whales. Retail participation has also weakened, according to derivatives data: Open Interest has declined from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA.

Mounting selling pressure leaves ADA’s technical outlook tilted to the downside.

Cardano whale activity eases as retail demand fades

At 2.49% on Monday, Cardano’s social dominance score reaches its highest level since late June. The increase is linked to no ADA or Midnight (ADA) tokens having been stolen in the Binance hack. 

Following last month’s sell-off, however, activity among Cardano whales has paused. According to Santiment, investors holding 10 million to 100 million account for 37.45% of the circulating supply, compared with 38.03% last month. This suggests that appetite for risk is fading among the largest holders. At the same time, the share of ADA supply in profit has fallen to 14.77% from 28.36%, pointing to a wave of profit-taking. Further reductions in whale holdings this month could deepen ADA’s 21% losses from October.

Retail backing for Cardano is also weakening. With ADA futures Open Interest down from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA, CoinGlass figures suggest traders are unwinding positions rather than adding fresh exposure.

Technical outlook: Cardano remains vulnerable to further losses

After losing 21% last month, Cardano remains below $0.2000 on Monday. Its position beneath the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $0.2179 and $0.2408 respectively, keeps ADA’s near-term outlook bearish.

A retreat beneath the former rising support line, around $0.2019, signals a bearish reversal for the altcoin. Although ADA remains above the $0.1894 support established at the 30 August low, the path towards the 18 August and 27 July lows of $0.1712 and $0.1537, respectively, is opening.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 32, suggesting sustained downward pressure. A negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading below zero adds to the signs of weak momentum.

Any recovery would first face resistance around $0.2019, where the former trendline broke, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.2179. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $0.2408 strengthens the broader bearish ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)