Dogecoin Price Forecast: Diverging whale activity leaves DOGE vulnerable to further losses

• Following five consecutive weeks of losses, Dogecoin trades near $0.075 on Monday.
• Large whales are selling DOGE while smaller whale wallets keep adding tokens, according to Santiment data.
• Further downside risks could lie ahead for DOGE as on-chain indicators weaken and the technical picture worsens.

Five successive weekly declines since the end of September have left Dogecoin (DOGE) trading near $0.075 on Monday. Whale activity is increasingly divided, Santiment data indicates: larger holders are trimming their positions, whereas smaller whale wallets are adding tokens. With on-chain indicators weakening and the technical picture worsening, DOGE could remain exposed to further losses.

Large whales sell as smaller holders accumulate

A split in whale sentiment is evident in Santiment’s Supply Distribution data. Since Thursday, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have cut their holdings by 120 million DOGE tokens. Over the same period, 100 million DOGE tokens have been accumulated by whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million (red line) and 1 million and 10 million (yellow line), despite the price decline.

The contrast points to larger whales cutting their exposure as smaller whale groups buy the dip. Further selling by large wallets could, in turn, increase near-term selling pressure on the dog-themed meme coin.

On-chain indicators point to bearish sentiment

A bearish picture for Dogecoin emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and heating conditions are evident in both DOGE’s spot and futures markets, with sellers also dominant in each. Taken together, these signals point to a cautious, bearish bias among meme coin traders.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Price retreats below key support zones

At $0.076 on Monday, Dogecoin is extending its decline beneath all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term outlook bearish. Overhead supply is layered across the 50-day EMA at $0.082, the 100-day EMA at $0.083 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090. Rebound attempts also remain constrained by the downward-sloping resistance trendline, with which the price last interacted around $0.079.

Buying interest appears subdued rather than indicative of a decisive reversal. Momentum is still weak: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the mid-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flat around the zero line.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance around the broken trendline near $0.079. The next hurdles are the 50-day EMA at $0.082 and the 100-day EMA at $0.083, where a rebound would be likely to attract selling pressure.

Further up, the horizontal barrier at $0.088 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090 strengthen the broader ceiling, before the more distant resistance level of $0.1027.

If the decline deepens, the next notable support is the horizontal floor around $0.068, where dip buyers could emerge. A daily close beneath that area would leave the price vulnerable to further losses within the broader corrective phase.

(An AI tool assisted in writing the technical analysis in this article. Learn more.)