EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears target a break below 1.1115-1.1110 support as ECB stays in focus

• A modest rise in USD demand brings renewed selling pressure to EUR/USD in Asian trading.
• Ahead of the ECB meeting, the Euro faces additional pressure from France’s fiscal difficulties and political deadlock.
• A move below 1.1115-1.1110 should open the door to further declines, given the bearish technical picture.

The 1.1110 area, the lowest level since May 2025, provided the starting point for the previous day’s modest EUR/USD rebound. That recovery stalls during Thursday’s Asian session as renewed US Dollar (USD) buying puts the pair under fresh selling pressure. There is little follow-through in spot prices, however, with traders remaining on the sidelines before the key central bank event and crucial US economic data releases.

Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged when the European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its policy decision later today, although it is also expected to retain a hawkish bias towards a possible 25-basis-point (bps) increase in December. For the shared currency, concerns over France’s mounting debt and political deadlock ahead of next year’s election could remain a drag. By contrast, hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and geopolitical uncertainty are helping the USD regain ground. Together, these factors suggest that EUR/USD’s path of least resistance is still lower.

The technical picture also points to a bearish near-term bias, with spot prices remaining below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the -hour chart. At around 40.2, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that upward momentum remains subdued. That is despite a slight improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, whose line has edged into positive territory. While this supports the negative outlook, sellers may wait for a break beneath the 1.1115-1.1110 area before positioning for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over the past two months or so.

Intraday fluctuations around 1.1140 are likely to draw traders’ attention for evidence of either a base forming or the bearish sequence continuing. Any recovery attempt, meanwhile, is more likely to meet initial resistance before the 1.1200 round figure, followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Only a sustained move above this latter level would relieve the present downward pressure and make room for a more constructive recovery phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD Remains Under Pressure on the 4-hour Chart