WTI holds steady below $102.00 as hopes for diplomacy counter Middle East supply risks

• At around $101.85, WTI is little changed in early Asian trading on Friday.
• WSJ reports that US Vice President Vance has contacted Iran.
• The Houthis report six missile and drone attacks on oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia.

At around $101.85 in Friday’s early Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, remains largely unchanged. Hopes that diplomacy could lead to peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran are partly counterbalancing concerns about Middle East supply.

In a report on Wednesday’s diplomatic outreach, The Wall Street Journal said US Vice President JD Vance had contacted Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace negotiations. US President Trump, meanwhile, said he had authorised Vance’s approach, stating that they “need help with medical supplies and various things.”

As the regional conflict intensifies, traders are weighing the prospects for US-Iran peace talks against the risk of disruption to Middle East supplies.

According to a statement on Thursday from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, three ballistic missile attacks were directed at the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, as well as the Rabigh refinery on the country’s Red Sea coast.

Two further operations were reported by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea. He said missiles targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, while a drone targeted King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, in the Eastern Province.

John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said: “Those reports of a new spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session,”

Oil Reflects Cautious Optimism as Middle East Risks and Energy Inflation Weigh on Central Banks

With President Trump keeping “the option of escalation after the midterms on the table.”, Rabobank analysts emphasise that “uncertainty about the Middle East conflict continues to linger over markets,”. They also cite reports that US officials have warned several regional allies “to prepare for potential military strikes after the US polls, and the possibility that Iran may retaliate.”

Diplomacy remains in focus too, with Rabobank highlighting “reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts.” Referring to the Wall Street Journal, the analysts say Vice President Vance has “reached out to the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” reportedly at Trump’s request “in an attempt to restart diplomatic channels.”

Rabobank’s assessment is that “oil markets currently seem to be trading the cautiously optimistic side of this binary outcome,” despite its observation that “the protracted energy inflation has global central bankers less optimistic.”

Technical Analysis: WTI Holds a Positive Bias Above the 100-day SMA

With WTI US Oil trading comfortably above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA, the daily chart retains a bullish bias. As the contract moves towards the upper Bollinger Band, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 63.84, in bullish territory but below overbought levels. This points to continued positive momentum, although periods of consolidation remain a risk.

The upper Bollinger Band at $105.55 marks the nearest resistance, where renewed selling could materialise if buyers seek a further advance. Initial support, meanwhile, lies around $96.15 at the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. Below that, the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50 form a wider demand zone expected to help contain a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)