Daily Financial Breakfast 10 November 2026: Waller Backs Rate Hikes; Why Does Trump Consider Further Iran Strikes Unnecessary?

Market News Today: What Is Shaping the Outlook?

• Further tightening remains necessary, according to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said October monthly core inflation of 0.3% or higher may warrant a half-point rate increase in December.
• Diplomatic optimism pulled WTI down to around $85.30 a barrel as Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump saw no need for further strikes on Iran.
• A December rate rise remains possible after Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli declined to exclude it, warning that energy-driven inflation risks could persist.
• A December Fed target range of 4.00%-4.25% was expected by all 101 economists polled by Reuters, with each forecasting a 25-basis-point increase.
• With year-end inflation projected a little above 4%, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane judged a December rate rise prudent, provided the data did not change.
• Support for further rate increases from one member emerged in the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions for its October meeting, which the central bank published.
• Rate cuts have been considered by the Bank of Mexico since September, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said in remarks to El Financiero.
• The UK's stronger-than-expected economic resilience partly reflected AI investment, according to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also flagged bubble risks.
• Clearing and settlement ledger technology for an NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform will come from Avalanche, Ava Labs announced, subject to regulatory approvals.

How Are Markets Responding?

Can the Dollar Sustain Its Recovery?

A recovery in the U.S. Dollar Index followed Waller's comments, leaving it around 101.70 on Tuesday with a gain of 0.05% after earlier losses. Sterling, by contrast, slipped into negative territory around $1.3430 after an initial advance. Monday's session saw the Australian dollar rise 0.88% to $0.6924.

How Far Has Oil Fallen?

According to Rabobank, a $4.60 fall left Brent at $93.70 a barrel, a low not seen since September. Early Asian trading on Tuesday put WTI around $85.30, marking its weakest level since August.

Why Did AVAX Outperform the Crypto Market?

Monday brought a 4% rise in Avalanche's AVAX token even as the wider cryptocurrency market declined. Its advance came after the announcement that Avalanche would have a role in an NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform.

What Is Driving Global Monetary Policy & Geopolitics?

Could Waller's Inflation Test Bring a Half-Point December Rate Rise?

To bring inflation down, interest rates would need to rise, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, according to Reuters. Monetary policy had turned out to be less restrictive than he had previously judged, he explained, adding that preserving the degree of policy restraint required an increase in real interest rates.

October monthly core consumer-price inflation of around 0.3% or higher may make a half-point December increase necessary, Waller said. In his view, inflation pressures were elevated, while the labour market remained solid. He saw broad-based productivity gains from artificial intelligence as still some distance away. Large stock-price swings, he added, generally did not materially influence his view on rates.

While inflation also troubled other Fed officials, they stopped short of giving comparable guidance for December. Risks to the central bank's mandate were on the inflation side, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said. Although the direction for policy was straightforward, he argued for caution in proceeding. With rates near neutral, Barkin said he did not have a base case for December.

The argument that tariffs alone explained price pressures had become more difficult to sustain, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, given the acceleration in services inflation in recent months. In Rabobank's assessment, Barkin's and Goolsbee's comments broadly fitted the Fed's firmer stance against inflation.

Can Diplomacy Ease Oil Pressure as Trump Rules Out Further Iran Strikes?

Citing “positive momentum” towards an end to the war, President Donald Trump said additional strikes on Iran would not be needed, according to Bloomberg's Monday report. Even so, he described the United States as remaining “locked and loaded.”

Expectations of diplomatic headway weighed on oil despite continuing attacks in the Middle East. Accounts of Monday's foreign-exchange and oil trading noted that progress towards a U.S.-Iran agreement had not been confirmed.

Trump's weekend remarks, also cited by Rabobank, made extensive strikes “highly unlikely” if Iran signed a “very strong agreement.” His comments depended on that condition, and there was no announcement of a completed agreement.

Could Persistent Energy Inflation Prompt a December Rise, Lombardelli Asks?

As the energy shock grew more persistent, inflation risks continued to be tilted upwards, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said. Her remarks at Tuesday's Bank of England Watchers' Conference in London highlighted the increased likelihood of second-round effects arising from high energy costs.

Asked separately in a Guardian interview, Lombardelli would not exclude a rate increase at the December meeting. This left a policy option open; it did not amount to a commitment to raise interest rates.

Why Do All 101 Reuters Poll Economists Expect a December Fed Hike?

A 25-basis-point December increase, lifting the Federal Reserve's target range to 4.00%-4.25%, was forecast by every one of the 101 economists in the Reuters survey conducted from November 6 to November 10. That unanimity represented economists' expectations, rather than a Fed decision that had been announced.

In a separate measure, Monday's trading put market-implied chances of a December increase at 82%.

What Would Change Lane's Case for a December ECB Rate Rise?

Unless incoming data changed, raising interest rates in December would be prudent, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said. His forecast placed year-end inflation a little above 4%. He also assessed that inflation had not yet peaked and that core and food inflation would accelerate.

Europe's resilient economy was a source of reassurance for Lane. Turning to France's public finances, he said the country's fiscal difficulties required a solution in Paris.

What Does the BoJ's October Summary Say About Further Rate Rises?

Continued interest-rate increases were appropriate, one member said in the Bank of Japan's newly released Summary of Opinions for its October monetary-policy meeting. This was the member's individual policy assessment, not the announcement of another rate decision.

How Long Has Banxico Been Considering Rate Cuts?

Since September, interest-rate cuts have formed part of the Bank of Mexico's policy considerations, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja told El Financiero. She was referring to deliberations over policy, not announcing a reduction in rates.

Can AI Support UK Resilience Without Bubble Risks? Bailey Weighs In

Artificial-intelligence investment, notably in business services, helped explain why UK economic activity had held up better than expected, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said. During his address to the Swiss Institute of International Studies in Zurich, he also cautioned that AI brought risks of bubbles.

What Is Changing in Financial Technology & Infrastructure?

Why Was Avalanche Chosen for NYSE-Affiliated Tokenised Securities Clearing?

For an NYSE-affiliated digital alternative trading system, Avalanche will supply the core clearing and settlement ledger technology, Ava Labs said. Development of the platform aims to enable 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement of tokenised securities, with regulatory approvals still required.

The selection reflected speed, reliability, predictable operating costs and network controls, according to NYSE Head of Digital Issuance Dennis Lee. Alongside this announcement, NYSE parent ICE was expanding its on-chain activities more widely, including through partnerships with OKX and Trade[XYZ].

Which Key Events Are Next?

• U.S. October Consumer Price Index Release (10 November 2026, 13:30 GMT): October consumer-price inflation figures are scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Federal Reserve December Rate Decision (9 December 2026): Announcement of the Federal Reserve's December interest-rate decision is scheduled for this date.