Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why is BTC holding below $80,000 with Middle East tensions and tech earnings in focus?

• Bitcoin remains under pressure below $80,000 on Tuesday after the previous session failed to deliver a close above the 50-day EMA near $80,765.
• Institutional buying was mixed: spot BTC ETFs attracted modest inflows of $110.34 million on Monday, while last week saw no BTC purchases by Strategy and an addition of 6,182 BTC by Strive.
• BTC’s next move is likely to be driven by forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East, according to QCP Capital.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains below $80,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday, with the previous session’s failure to close above a key resistance zone weighing on price action.

Institutional buying presented a mixed picture. Modest inflows entered US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Monday; last week, Strategy (MSTR) suspended Bitcoin purchases, whereas Strive (ASST) acquired 6,182 BTC. For the Crypto King’s next directional move, QCP Capital points to forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East as likely drivers.

Can modest institutional buying support Bitcoin?

A mildly positive start to the week for institutional demand has yet to translate into a price recovery. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $110.34 million on Monday, following net inflows of $301.2 million last week that ended two consecutive weeks of outflows. Monday’s modest inflows were insufficient to lift BTC, although a recovery could follow if inflows persist and gather strength during the week.

In a Monday post on X, Lookonchain reported that Strive purchased 6,182 BTC last week, whereas Strategy bought none. After several weeks of purchases, Strategy’s decision to step back signals a change in institutional accumulation, even as Strive increases its buying. Continued accumulation by Strive could absorb some selling pressure and lend BTC a degree of support.

Which catalysts could determine Bitcoin’s next move?

Forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East are likely to matter more for Bitcoin’s next directional move than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome, QCP Capital said in its Monday report. The meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October.

Wednesday brings Q3 earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, with Amazon following on Thursday. QCP Capital says concerns about hyperscaler valuations could subside if the results support continued heavy spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Disappointing earnings, by contrast, could prolong the current AI-driven market sell-off.

The analyst also noted: “Oil is the second driver. The US cut staff at Middle East embassies over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump said a strike on Iran could come as early as Sunday before ruling it out,”

For this week, QCP Capital presented three possible Bitcoin scenarios. Its base case envisages the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving rates unchanged, with BTC trading within a $78,000 to $86,000 range.

In the bullish scenario, earnings alleviate concerns over AI capital expenditure, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh softens the December signal and sends yields lower. This would allow BTC to regain the $80,000-$81,500 cost-basis band before advancing towards $86,000 and subsequently $88,000-$90,000. 

The bearish scenario combines an escalation in the Middle East with either an unexpected rate increase or a press conference that locks in December. Under these conditions, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise back above 5%, pushing BTC below $78,000.

Bitcoin technical outlook: What do softer momentum indicators signal?

The near-term outlook for Bitcoin remains neutral to slightly bearish as Tuesday’s price of $79,918 consolidates just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,765, a dynamic resistance level. The medium-term picture remains constructive, however, as BTC holds above the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $77,727 and $76,338, respectively.

Buyers’ difficulty in extending the earlier advance is reflected in subdued momentum readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 41, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, indicating that bullish pressure is fading.

A daily close above immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA near $80,765 would clear the path towards the $85,000 horizontal barrier. Selling interest seen previously is likely to return around that level.

Initial downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,727, ahead of the stronger structural floor around the 200-day EMA at $76,338. Losing the latter level would materially undermine the broader trend, leaving BTC vulnerable to a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)