Can Bitcoin hold $82,500 support as Nasdaq correlation returns amid macro pressures?

• Selling pressure in AI-related shares and rising US inflation have coincided with a renewed strengthening of Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq.
• Deribit faces a growing challenge from IBIT options, which account for 60% of the growth in Bitcoin options open interest since Q3 2025.
• Renewed volatility is testing Bitcoin’s defence of $82,500 support; a sustained breach could leave the low $70,000 range exposed.

Pressure on Bitcoin’s (BTC) $82,500 support is building from macroeconomic factors, while its correlation with the Nasdaq is strengthening again following last week’s decline alongside technology shares.

Can Bitcoin break its range as Nasdaq correlation strengthens?

Following last week’s price action, Bitcoin is once again moving in closer correlation with the technology-heavy Nasdaq, K33 Research noted in its Tuesday report.

A steep sell-off in semiconductor shares and US inflation readings above expectations preceded the renewed correlation. Both factors contributed to the Nasdaq recording its weakest week since the week of 6 April 2025. Over the past week, Bitcoin declined roughly 2%, while average daily spot trading volume slipped 1% to $2.5 billion.

K33 described the relationship as follows: “Zooming out to a two-week horizon, BTC and Nasdaq returns sit at almost equal levels, pointing to a return to the relatively correlated regime seen from February to mid-August,”

Bitcoin’s current price remains attractive despite subdued participation, the report maintained. It cautioned, however, that limited activity raises the prospect of continued uneven trading.

The expanding role of options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was another focus of K33’s analysis. These contracts are increasingly challenging crypto exchange Deribit’s position as the leading venue for Bitcoin options.

Since the third quarter of 2025, open interest in Bitcoin options has ranged from approximately 700,000 BTC to 1.1 million BTC. Around 60% of the increase has come from IBIT.

Before the launch of IBIT options, Deribit accounted for 70% of open interest; its share has subsequently fallen to 43%.

At 434,922 BTC, open interest in IBIT options was equivalent to approximately 54% of the trust’s Bitcoin assets under management.

The report put that figure in context: “A ratio of 54% might seem extreme, but it is actually low compared to the largest ETFs on other assets,”

Can $82,500 support withstand inflation risks?

Bitcoin continues to defend support at $82,500 even as its correlation with the Nasdaq returns, according to Wintermute’s Tuesday market commentary. With forthcoming macroeconomic events potentially triggering volatility, the firm said Bitcoin could find it difficult to stay within this range.

Wintermute outlined its concerns: “The Fed next week, the midterms and Q3 earnings all land in the next few weeks, and we don’t think the range holds through them,”

A breakout would require Bitcoin to cross $87,000, the report indicated. Conversely, a sustained decline below $82,500 could bring the low $70,000 range into view.

Strong third-quarter earnings and a less aggressive response from the Federal Reserve could help Bitcoin rise above $87,000, according to Wintermute. Higher yields and persistent weakness in technology shares, by contrast, could weigh on the cryptocurrency.

Weakness was becoming more pronounced among altcoins, the report noted, with its broader altcoin cohort losing 5.69% over the week.

Wintermute added: “Altcoins are starting to feel heavy again, with the whole spectrum cohort selling off since topping around 14 days ago and down 5.69% on the week,”

As inflows into altcoins weakened, capital was increasingly being directed towards Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), the firm observed. Only higher-quality large-cap tokens bucked the trend, drawing some longer-term investors as liquidity increased.

Even a Bitcoin rally might not be enough to drive an altcoin recovery, Wintermute cautioned. A wider market sell-off, meanwhile, could expose altcoins to additional losses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $82,600, having gained 0.8% over the past 24 hours.