Bitcoin derivatives strengthen, but face a looming $87,000 sell wall

• A 4.2% increase took Bitcoin futures open interest to 645,410 BTC, pointing to fresh positioning alongside the price recovery.
• Overlapping sell orders and sizeable leveraged liquidation clusters leave BTC facing resistance in the $86,500 to $87,500 area.
• Removal from MSCI indexes under new rules effective from November 11 could expose Strategy to selling pressure.

Improved derivatives positioning accompanied signs of a recovery in Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday. However, the risk of selling increased between $86,500 and $87,500, with sell orders and leveraged liquidation clusters threatening to cap further advances.

Bitcoin derivatives point to fresh positioning

Repeated attempts to push Bitcoin below the bottom of its range failed, according to a Wednesday report from crypto exchange Bitfinex. Buying on dips helped underpin prices between $81,724 and $83,470.

By October 20, futures open interest on major exchanges had climbed 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, pointing to fresh positioning during the price recovery. During peak sessions, funding rates returned to annualised levels of 7% to 9%, indicating a modest preference for leveraged long positions.

A limited near-term trading range is also suggested by options positioning. According to Bitfinex, notional open interest for Friday’s expiry stands at $1.23 billion, with the maximum pain price close to $82,000.

For the October 30 monthly expiry, notional open interest totals $11.2 billion. Its implied one-standard-deviation range extends from $78,300 to $87,100.

Liquidity clusters reinforce resistance near $87K

Against the improving backdrop in Bitcoin derivatives, onchain analytics firm Glassnode flagged sell orders in the $86,500 to $87,500 range. It also identified liquidation clusters close to $85,000 and $87,000.

In a Wednesday report, Glassnode wrote: “A move toward $87K could gain speed as short positions are forced shut, but it would meet the asks on the order book at the same price,”

Realised profits were running at roughly half the pace seen in the week of September’s market high, Glassnode also noted. This points to less selling pressure from holders sitting on profits.

Among investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago, selling has fallen below a third of the daily level recorded in early October.

The firm stated: “A daily close above $86.7K would put the 6 to 12 month buyers back in profit on average and clear the nearest band of supply overhead,”

By contrast, Monday brought a return to inflows for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which attracted $526 million, their biggest daily intake since September 22. That restored positive weekly flows, though ETF trading volumes remained subdued.

Glassnode added: "Inflows that repeat on rising volume would show demand broadening beyond a single day,"

Strategy faces removal risk ahead of MSCI decision

Scheduled for November 11, MSCI’s final list of companies affected by its new index rules for non-operating businesses was another focus of the report.

A preliminary assessment identified Strategy as one of the companies potentially affected. Should it be removed, index-tracking funds could be forced to sell its shares.

The threat of removal from MSCI indexes is not new for Strategy. A proposal from MSCI in October 2025 sought to exclude companies with digital asset holdings representing at least 50% of total assets, leaving Strategy exposed. In January, however, the index provider stepped back from immediate exclusion.